Somalia Elections

Qoshiro

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Villa Somalia right now

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QueenofKings

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I’m not sure farmaajo can survive a HG shake down. Too many shake downs at this point. He can try appealing to the public and being more populist but I think he lacks the charisma. A better approach might be introducing laws that will make the next presidents job harder. Even creating diversions if he must, but I think he’s playing it too safe to do that.


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MetalGearGaladi

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The final act in the showdown will happen in the caretaker Parliament. UNSC was divided back in April when they held a closed door meeting over the extension that resulted in no sanctions and had a few unsc representatives speak out against the extension. I see the same course of action being played out with the latest meeting being called by UK
 

Koji

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It is UK and EU who are with the PM; however, the US position isn't so obvious. We'll see.
The US doesn't want anymore Chinese/Russian alliances to emerge so they'll back the FGS from the front while supporting the UK/EU agenda on the downlow.
 

QueenofKings

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Laftagareen is pro-Farmaajo, Gudlaawe/Qoorqoor are either pro-farmaajo or neutral, and Madobe/Deni are going to be pro-Rooble I don’t see them being united :dead1:

I find it really hard to believe that Rooble is being this brazen without some clan backing by way of Galmudug/Hirshabeele. Public consensus is needed for anyone to actually hold power. And that requires clan support. Rooble needs qoorqoor and clan leaders, they’ll want things from him in return, and they’ll be salivating at the prospect of having ‘their man’ in charge.

Neutral is the best we can hope they’ll be. In reality I think everyone has to pick a side and they’ll probably side against Farmaajo.
 

Koji

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I find it really hard to believe that Rooble is being this brazen without some clan backing by way of Galmudug/Hirshabeele. Public consensus is needed for anyone to actually hold power. And that requires clan support. Rooble needs qoorqoor and clan leaders, they’ll want things from him in return, and they’ll be salivating at the prospect of having ‘their man’ in charge.

Neutral is the best we can hope they’ll be. In reality I think everyone has to pick a side and they’ll probably side against Farmaajo.
Rooble's backing is international nations alongside some corrupt insiders within Somalia's government who have support from their populations.
 
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The final act in the showdown will happen in the caretaker Parliament. UNSC was divided back in April when they held a closed door meeting over the extension that resulted in no sanctions and had a few unsc representatives speak out against the extension. I see the same course of action being played out with the latest meeting being called by UK

The discussion in the UNSC is a UK campaign to make sure the caretaker Lower House of Somalia's parliament doesn't take an action. The FMS heads meeting is also their ploy. This latest skirmish is their coup d'etat that has been in the works for awhile.
 

MetalGearGaladi

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I find it really hard to believe that Rooble is being this brazen without some clan backing by way of Galmudug/Hirshabeele. Public consensus is needed for anyone to actually hold power. And that requires clan support. Rooble needs qoorqoor and clan leaders, they’ll want things from him in return, and they’ll be salivating at the prospect of having ‘their man’ in charge.

Neutral is the best we can hope they’ll be. In reality I think everyone has to pick a side and they’ll probably side against Farmaajo.

If the matter gets decided at parliament then a broad based coalition will inevitably decide the outcome. NN is mostly comprised of independents from all Somali clans who are anti-daamul jadeed and I’ll be surprised if PM Rooble can even break apart that coalition considering NN maintains parliamentary majority in the caretaker parliament.

I agree with your point about clan support but President Farmaajo is still the commander in chief. That’s his biggest advantage in this showdown and the reason why PM Rooble was trying to neutralize it with his plans to fire Gen Odowaa and giving that authorization SNA payments order to Fin Min Beyle.

We just have to see wait and see what Parliament does when Speaker Mursal calls the emergency meeting to end the executive infighting.
 
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