Somalia Elections

MDAX813

Wadani
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Eritrean-trained troops returning, a 1 month plus delay, Madobe being extra paranoid so the Jubba Hoose OP is probably going to happen. Securing the border before the ICJ case is very crucial.
 

MetalGearGaladi

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Eritrean-trained troops returning, a 1 month plus delay, Madobe being extra paranoid so the Jubba Hoose OP is probably going to happen. Securing the border before the ICJ case is very crucial.


I don’t think Lower Juba/Middle Juba offensive is in the cards until after the elections. No serious JL offensive can happen until KDF withdrawal commences or if Kenya respects the agreement AMISOM made with Gen Odowaa over the joint HQs in each sector.
 

MDAX813

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I don’t think Lower Juba/Middle Juba offensive is in the cards until after the elections. No serious JL offensive can happen until KDF withdrawal commences or if Kenya respects the agreement AMISOM made with Gen Odowaa over the joint HQs in each sector.
KDF supposed military superiority doesn’t mean much if you have strong local backing (e.g. Gedo). You do have point but winning over local Clans is more important rn. It’ll be close but it depends on how smoothly the initial press goes
 

MetalGearGaladi

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KDF supposed military superiority doesn’t mean much if you have strong local backing (e.g. Gedo). You do have point but winning over local Clans is more important rn. It’ll be close but it depends on how smoothly the initial press goes

SNA will need to liberate Sablale district in LS first to put Jilib in a play which can split AS’s continuous areas of control into two. From there they can squeeze the rest of AS’s positions in Middle Juba by attacking from Gedo, and Jilib.
 
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